Revs in Worcester: Nick Cuba Runs the Numbers

In a post last week I tried to guesstimate the 60 mi. radius populations for Worcester and Boston and invited anyone who might be able to develop a more accurate estimate to send me the data and I would do an update. Well, Nick Cuba, a grad student in geography at Clark University here in Worcester answered the call, and here's what his analysis shows. (For those interested in how Nick arrived at these numbers, see his explanation at **** below).


Above Courtesy of Nick Cuba

Turns out that at a 60 mi. radius, Worcester has a population greater than both Foxboro and Boston, by about 1 million people in each case. The populations are pretty much the same for all three markets at the 45 mi. radius. At the 30 mile radius, the Foxboro and Somerville populations are more than 2.5x greater that that of Worcester. Finally, the 15 mi. radius data shows that the Somerville population is 3x that of either Foxboro or Worcester. I made the map below showing all four circles around the Worcester market so I could see exactly what cities and towns were included in each circle.

The Worcester Market at 15, 30, 45 and 60 Mile Radii

My previous estimates led me to conclude that, assuming the market for the New England Revolution is a 60 mi. radius centered on the stadium, the Worcester market was about 1 million people less than the Boston market. Based on Nick's better estimated and updated data, it appears that the Worcester market is perhaps bigger than the Boston market by about 1 million people, further supporting the argument that a Worcester based stadium has just as large (if not larger) a population base from which to draw.

A key issue however that Nick's data points out is that the 15 and 30 mi. radius populations for Worcester are significantly below that of a Boston (and Foxboro in the case of the 30 mi. radius population) based SSS stadium location. The large 15 and 30 mi. radius numbers for a Boston based stadium are what make this location so attractive and the consensus first choice for the Revs. On the flip side, however, this density means that large parcels of available land at affordable prices are few and far between.

In his e-mail to me, Nick concluded "[t]he plausibility of a Worcester site seems almost totally tied to the question of how much of a "destination" sport (a la NFL) the MLS is." Given the above data, I too believe that success in Worcester would require the market to think of a Worcester SSS as a "destination." While the MLS (and the individual teams themselves) no doubt hold a lot of influence in developing this "destination" brand for the MLS as a whole, we cannot forget the significance that PLACE (city and stadium) contributes to this "destination" equation.

My earlier Parade to the Pitch post is one example of how Worcester in general and the Wyman-Gordon parcel specifically offers a unique PLACE for the development of a successful SSS destination for the Revolution. Future posts will further explore this idea.


**** Nick's discussion behind the numbers: "Attached is a table/chart showing population (census 2010 towns) by radius distance for Worcester, Somerville, and Foxborough sites. I got a little more interested as I started and so analyzed market size at 15, 30, 45, and 60 mile radii. Even though Boston is the hub of hwys e.g. 90, 93, 95, the difference between these results and one based on drive-time along roads may not be substantial. Worcester isn't as well connected as Boston, but it's pretty much a straight shot from Hartford and Springfield, which are the reasons why it's top end figure here is higher than the other sites.

Since there are a few cities which are outliers with respect to population (e,g, Boston, Worcester, Providence) somewhat arbitrary methodological choices may be highly consequential. FWIW I counted a city's population toward a site's market if the city's geographic center was within the radius (actually clipping towns by the circle would have taken longer; that method of extraction also rests on the assumption that population is distributed equally throughout a town, so it's unclear if it would even be any more accurate). I've attached another image (below) which should illustrate what I did."

Above Courtesy of Nick Cuba